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John's loose nuke problem

John Robb on his Radio Weblog writes: "There is a strategy problem that defines this potential war that is worth exploring. It is what I call John's "loose nuke problem." .... In this new strategy problem we are faced with a model scenario where through military or political inaction (or misapplied action), NYC is destroyed by a terrorist nuke. The question becomes: should we change the regime in Iraq to reduce the chance of a nuke claiming 3 m NYC victims? What if the risk was reduced by 20%? How big of a risk is it? This is a complex calculus. The calculations stretch beyond Iraq. What if fighting a war with N. Korea will cost 1 m lives. Would it be worth it to fight the war to save 3m lives in NYC? As you can see, this gets very complex and very dangerous very quickly."

 

 

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